Looking Ahead To 2009

The Indians need to go 3-3 in their remaining six games to finish above .500. Quite an achievement for a team that was in complete shambles by July. They were 37-53 at one point, and got as far back as 15 games in the Central.

So, let's look ahead. The following is the roster as it stands for 2009: (note, league minimum elevated to $400k from '09-'11)

(salaries courtesy of The Cleveland Fan)

(Pos Player Salary in '09)

C Victor Martinez $5.9M
C Kelly Shoppach arbitration-eligible ($390k in '08)
C Sal Fasano veteran minimum

1B Ryan Garko $400k
1B Michael Aubrey $400k

2B Asdrubal Cabrera $400k
2B Jamey Carroll $2.5M, club option, $150k buyout
2B Josh Barfield arbitration-eligible ($390k in '08)

SS Jhonny Peralta $3.65M (signing bonus added to base salary)

3B Andy Marte arbitration-eligible $390k

LF Ben Francisco $400k
LF David Dellucci $4M

CF Grady Sizemore $4.767M (signing bonus added to base salary)

RF Shin-Soo Choo $400k
RF Franklin Gutierrez $400k

DH Travis Hafner $11M ($11.5 on some reports)

SP Fausto Carmona $2.75M
SP Cliff Lee $6M (potential bonus for Cy Young voting, contract details not fully known)
SP Jake Westbrook $10M
SP Anthony Reyes $400k
SP Aaron Laffey $400k
SP Jeremy Sowers $400k
SP Scott Lewis $400k
SP Zach Jackson $400k

RP Rafael Betancourt $3.35M
RP Jensen Lewis $400k
RP Rafael Perez $400k
RP Masa Kobayashi $3M
RP Brendan Donnelly $400k
RP Tom Mastny $400k
RP Juan Rincon $2.745M (signed to minor league likely negated contract)
RP John Meloan $400k
RP Adam Miller $400k

Obviously, not all of these guys will make the 25 man. Cutting it down to 25, of the current guys, it will look something like this.

Catchers
Victor Martinez $5.9M
Kelly Shoppach arb-eligible

First Base
Ryan Garko $400k

Second Base
Asdrubal Cabrera $400k
Jamey Carroll $2.5M
Josh Barfield arb-eligible

Shortstop
Jhonny Peralta $3.65M

Third Base
Andy Marte arb-eligible

Outfielders
Grady Sizemore $4.767M
Ben Francisco $400k
Shin-Soo Choo $400k
Franklin Gutierrez $400k
David Dellucci $4M

Designated Hitter
Travis Hafner $11.5M

Starting Pitchers
Cliff Lee $6M
Fausto Carmona $2.75M
Anthony Reyes $400k
Two of: Scott Lewis, Aaron Laffey, Zach Jackson, Jeremy Sowers $800k

Relief Pitchers
Jensen Lewis $400k
Rafael Betancourt $3.35M
Rafael Perez $400k
Masa Kobyashi $3M
Brendan Donnelly $400k
Adam Miller $400k

For salary purposes, this is my projected 25-man roster.

In total, $52,617,000

To start the 2008 season, the Indians payroll was at nearly $79 million, according to USA Today.

We'll assume that the Indians are looking to keep their payroll somewhere between $70-75M going in to the 2008 season, as I'm sure they made a substantial profit off of the 2007 season, but not much of one this year, outside of the Progressive Field naming rights deal.

I don't expect the roster to remain that way. Josh Barfield will likely be a trade candidate in the offseason. An arbitor is not going to give him much more than the $400k minimum, but the front office does not appear too enamored with Barfield anymore. On that same wavelength, Andy Marte will only be back if the Indians cannot find anyone to play third base this offseason, and even then, Jamey Carroll has been more than adequate defensively at the position. It's likely that he will not be retained, and may even be taken off the 40-man to protect a younger player in the Rule 5 draft, or open up a spot to claim someone.

In the pitching department, I'm fairly confident that Juan Rincon will not be retained. If he is, that's a problem. Masa Kobayashi is also a candidate to be non-tendered. He's signed through next season with an option for 2010, but has been awful since the All-Star break. After the break, Kobayashi has 15 appearances, covering 11.1 innings, and has posted a 10.32 ERA. While I can understand that Kobayashi had 42 first half appearances, more than he had in full seasons in Japan, a 25-man roster spot and $3M is not worth half a season of relief work.

Another non-tender candidate, and we're all hoping for this one, is David Dellucci. Sure, in 2007, he suffered a horrible leg injury, but since being signed to the three-year $11.5M contract, Dellucci has hit a pathetic .236 with an OBP of barely over .300 and an OPS of barely .700. Just atrocious numbers for a corner OF. The Indians aren't in desperate need of that roster spot, though, so Dellucci will probably play out that last year.

For those of you who have continued reading through this, here is your reward. My thoughts for who the Indians should add for the 2009 season. Beginning with a middle of the rotation starter.

SP Derek Lowe
What better replacement for Jake Westbrook in the middle of the rotation than a carbon copy with a lower ERA? He will be a free agent in the offseason for a Dodgers team that is sure to court CC Sabathia, who wants to stay in the National League and be close to home. They also have youngsters like Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley to complement Hiroki Kuroda. Though his GB% is at its lowest in the past seven years at 60.2%, he's an innings eater with postseason experience.

His contract expires at season's end, the final year of a 4/40 deal signed after leaving Boston in 2004. Lowe has made at least 32 starts every year since 2002 after being moved from the closer's role. He will turn 36 in June, but a 3/33 deal will not make him an albatross to trade in the final year of his contract and will provide a stable veteran surrounded by kids like Carmona, Reyes, and Lewis/Laffey/Jackson/Sowers.

SP Brad Penny
Think Kevin Millwood c. 2005. Brad Penny's battled a multitude of shoulder problems in 2008, posting a 6.27 ERA. But, before this year, Penny made at least 22 starts every year dating back to 2000. The Dodgers do have an option for Penny at $8.75M, but there is a $2M buyout that I anticipate them making.

In the event that they do buyout the final year and make him a free agent, he can be had for a low base salary with incentives that can escalate his contract. If done properly, it can be a low-risk high-reward contract. It's also likely that Penny would agree to a one-year incentive-based deal in order to get healthy and then cash in after proving that he can still do it. He'll only be 31 next May. I would think that a base salary of $4-5M would do this, with escalators to get it to $8.5-9M.

SP Brett Myers
Myers will be eligible for free agency after the 2010 season. He's due to make $12M in 2009, so any trade would almost have to include the Phillies taking back some of his salary. He has not been the poster child of good health, but he could be a multi-faceted acquisition. He has closing experience, as well as, starting experience. He's certainly had plenty of ups and downs over the past couple of years, but he's a steady .500 guy with an ERA around 4, and that's what we'd be looking for.

SP Mark Prior
Prior had season-ending shoulder surgery back in June, after signing a $1M deal with the Padres before the season. Prior has not pitched in a major league game since 2006 with the Chicago Cubs. Think of him as a cheaper version of Matt Clement this season. They're both huge question marks. I don't think that either one of them will get guaranteed major league contracts. But, with Prior's upside, a low-risk high-reward minor league deal, or even a non-roster invite to Spring Training, should not be out of the question.


I will preface my next group of desirables by saying that I hate the idea of Jhonny Peralta being moved to 3B. His lateral movement is awful and his reaction time is not much better. As evidenced, the Indians can overcome his fielding shortcomings at short, but can they deal with them at third? Will he be more of a liability, as singles become doubles when misplayed at 3B? My answers to those two questions are resounding no's. But, it's been rumored that the Indians brass has thought about this for some time. So, here are my infielding ideas with stipulations.

If Peralta is moved to 3B:

2B Mark Grudzielanek
Grudzielanek fits many of the player stereotypes that Eric Wedge views highly. The man's a grinder. Not blessed with an abundance of talent, Grudzielanek has consistently been a .300 hitter batting in the two-hole for some really horrendous offenses. He's a Gold Glove second baseman, and a fairly cheap option. The Royals picked up Grudzielanek's option for this season at $4.5M, as they waited on Mike Aviles and Alberto Callaspo to fill holes.

With those holes filled, Grudzielanek becomes the ideal stopgap for the Indians at second base. Going off his career stats, Grudzielanek puts the ball in play almost 88% of the time. On a team full of windmills, a consistent contact hitter is just what the doctor ordered. If Grady Sizemore remains in the leadoff spot, a #2 hitter that can put the ball in play and move him around, that increases the Indians run scoring probability exponentially.


If Peralta remains at SS:

3B Chone Figgins
Look at me like I'm crazy if you wish, but I think he can be had from the Angels for a price. The Angels will become a very cost-conscious team over the next few years. Chone Figgins fits perfectly into the mold of someone that can be had. He's arbitration-eligible this offseason after making $4.5M during the 2008 campaign.

Figgins fits a few more holes for the Indians. They will have a bona fide leadoff hitter to move Grady down the order to drive in more runs. He's a dimension of speed that they have not had since the heyday of Kenny Lofton. He's a versatile player in the field, having played in the OF, at 2B, and predominantly at 3B. He's growing into the prime of his career and swings at strikes. During 2008, he's swung at just 16.6% of pitches outside the zone.

3B Casey Blake
Casey Blake is a professional. He may take some sort of discount to come back to a team that he feels loyal to because they gave him a chance to be an everyday player. The problem is that he'll be the most sought-after 3B this offseason, after hitting 20+HR between the two leagues. You know what you get with Blake and you know what kind of guy you get in the clubhouse.


I'm not mentioning the outfield, because I think it's pretty set. Outside of five guys competing for three spots, the starters are Sizemore, Choo, and Francisco. But....there's always room for improvement.

LF Raul Ibanez
It's highly possible that we'll be priced out of most of the free agent markets this offseason. If we are, our trading chips at the major league level are Kelly Shoppach, Ben Francisco, and Franklin Gutierrez. Signing Raul Ibanez makes one of those two outfielders expendable. Ibanez has consistently hit .280 or better since 2001. While he is a bit of a windmill at times, 20 HR and 100 RBI to our lineup is not a bad route to go.

The only issue I would have is that our lineup would get a bit one-dimensional with lefties Sizemore, Hafner, Ibanez, and Choo. But, Ibanez is a sound player and would only require a two-year deal while we waited on Matt LaPorta or Nick Weglarz to get to the show and be ready to succeed.

Not a glaring need, but an improvement if Francisco were to be dealt to fill another need.


The Cleveland Indians 2008 bullpen has been awful. There's no question about it. It hampered them in 2006 and has hampered them in 2008. Here are some bullpen acquisitions that they can target.

LHP Jeremy Affeldt
Affeldt reaches free agency after inking a one-year deal with Cincinnati for $3M. Signing a guy like Affeldt would lessen any pressure on Rafael Perez and give the back end of the bullpen another sound lefty, that could be used in any situation, including long relief. Affeldt's been pretty good, but it has not been worthy of a significant raise in his contract for the 2009 season. With Kobayashi expiring, and not likely to be retained, spending $7.5M for two years of Affeldt would not be a bad move. He also has starting experience.

LHP Brian Fuentes
I'm only in favor of an upgrade to Jensen Lewis if it is an obvious and significant upgrade. Kevin Gregg is not. Neither is Brandon Lyon. My significant upgrades are Fuentes, Putz, Capps, and K-Rod. Putz may be available. Capps is inked very cheap and could command a king's ransom at the 2009 trading deadline. K-Rod is unaffordable.

That leaves Brian Fuentes. However, Fuentes is likely to command a three or four-year deal worth about $10M per. With Mark Shapiro's track record, signing bullpen pitchers, or any pitcher, to a long-term deal is highly unlikely at best. Jake Westbrook's year-long injury will not help that trend. I put Fuentes here as more of a token addition. He would be a huge upgrade, but the probability is so small.

RHP J.J. Putz
Putz has certainly gone through his fair share of adversity in 2008, pitching in just 44 games and blowing eight saves in that time. His velocity did not drop, the way K-Rod's has at times this season, but Putz doubled his walk total from '07 to '08 in 28 less innings. With arms like Sean Green and Brandon Morrow in the Seattle bullpen, Putz might be a tradable commodity.

Given his struggles, the price has gone down. Also, he's on the line for $5M in '09 and $8.6M in '10, with a $1M buyout. The question becomes, is he worth $6-15M? Can he be healthy enough to save at least 30-35 games? Depending on what the cost in personnel is, this may not be a bad gamble to take. It's a small buyout, even for a mid-market team like the Indians.


Now that all of this has digested, here is my projected 2009 Indians roster, with salaries included:

C Kelly Shoppach $2M (while I don't claim to know much about the arbitration process, I'll assume the Indians offer about $1.5M while Shoppach asks for $2.5-3M)
C Wyatt Toregas/Sal Fasano $400k

1B Victor Martinez $5.9M
1B Ryan Garko $400k

2B Mark Grudzielanek $4.75M
2B Jamey Carroll $2.5M

SS Asdrubal Cabrera $400k

3B Jhonny Peralta $3.65M

LF Ben Francisco $400k

CF Grady Sizemore $4.767M

RF Shin-Soo Choo $400k
RF Franklin Gutierrez $400k

DH Travis Hafner $11.5M

SP Cliff Lee $6M
SP Fausto Carmona $2.75M
SP Derek Lowe $10.5M
SP Anthony Reyes $400k
SP Scott Lewis/Aaron Laffey $400k

RP Jensen Lewis $400k
RP Rafael Betancourt $3.35M
RP Rafael Perez $400k (signs three-year $10M extension with Indians to buy out arbitration-eligible years during '09, may add on to contract near season's end)
RP Adam Miller $400k
RP Masa Kobayashi $3M
RP Brendan Donnelly $700k (retained for one-year at $700k)

Disabled list: Jake Westbrook $10M

Salary: $75,767,000

It's on the high side, without a doubt. To summarize, add Derek Lowe and Mark Grudzielanek. Subtract David Dellucci and Andy Marte. Add a raise for Brendan Donnelly, Kelly Shoppach and the league minimum going up $10k for everyone.

Adding Derek Lowe may be a very lofty goal, but certainly an achievable one. One thing to consider is that the 2010 rotation, with Jake Westbrook, would feature Lee-Carmona-Lowe-Westbrook-???, would consist of $8M for Lee, $4.9M for Carmona, $10.5M for Lowe, $11M for Westbrook. That's nearly $35M tied up in the rotation alone. Consequently, that may make a Lowe acquisition a very hard financial pill to swallow. But it's clear that Shapiro is hesitant to trade prospects and it's also clear that he will be giving up prospects, or a Kelly Shoppach, to get a middle-of-the-rotation arm. So, the question becomes, what is more valuable? Payroll flexibility or young position players/pitchers?

Another question of signing any pitchers to a multi-year deal is that Victor Martinez and Rafael Perez will be due for raises at season's end. Kelly Shoppach as well, if a multi-year deal is not reached. That will take a repeat of this season for any ideas of extending Shoppach.

Once again, this is simply my idea. But, Shapiro's made it known around league circles that answering the closer role question is the offseason's biggest priority. Whoever that may be is sure to command a pretty penny, and make getting a proven MOR pitcher a difficult task. In my estimation, Shapiro's rated the offseason priorities as 1. closer; 2. MOR starter; 3. corner OF/IF offensive upgrade. Only two of the three are possible with the current roster and the budget that the Indians have to work within.

My projection only covers one of these upgrades, but fills the corner IF positions with in-house upgrades in Peralta and Martinez. Shoppach remains behind the plate, and Lewis remains the closer. This is because I cannot foresee a significant upgrade in the closer's role and I'm hopeful that Shapiro will not ante up for a Kevin Gregg or a Brandon Lyon, when Lewis could be just as sufficient. I don't see a long-term Fuentes deal, so that narrows it down to trading for Putz. Putz is just like signing a free agent, but giving up the personnel as well.

Any feedback to this is much appreciated! Thanks for reading!